New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Lindor scored.7–1
- 9Lindor doubled to left, Taylor scored and Azócar scored.6–1
- 8Carroll homered to center (427 feet).4–1
- 8Soto homered to left (380 feet).4–0
- 7McNeil tripled to center, Acuña scored.3–0
- 7Acuña singled to center, Torrens scored.2–0
- 6Soto homered to center (427 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML NYM -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +1 Elo | ARI 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 9–920th of 30 |
| 24th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15152nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301539 | Elo rating | 15289th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–23 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–7 ARI in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.