New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-3
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.1–5
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (383 feet), Naylor scored.1–4
- 4Perdomo grounded out to shortstop, Naylor scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–2
- 4Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to second, Grichuk scored, Suárez out at second.1–1
- 3Alonso walked, Taylor scored, Soto to second, Lindor to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML NYM +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 49.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +2 Elo | NYM 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 8–924th of 30 |
| 26th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 152511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–17 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–15 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 14–22 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–6 ARI in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.