Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baty homered to left (381 feet), Vientos scored.6–5
- 8Amaya singled to left, Busch scored and Hoerner scored, Swanson to second.6–3
- 4Baty homered to right center (386 feet), Alonso scored and Vientos scored.4–3
- 4Swanson homered to left center (404 feet).4–0
- 3Busch singled to center, Suzuki scored.3–0
- 1Swanson reached on infield single to third, Tucker scored, Turner to second, Suzuki to third.2–0
- 1Suzuki singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Tucker to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML CHC +140 / NYM -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -149
- CHC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −7 | CHC: Brad Keller: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +22 Elo | NYM 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 14–32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 21–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 13–15 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 25–14 | 15–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–8 NYM in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.