Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hicks homered to right (370 feet), Wagaman scored.1–5
- 4Lopez homered to left center (401 feet), Mervis scored and Wagaman scored.1–3
- 3Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walls scored, Rortvedt to second, Rortvedt safe at second on error by second baseman Lopez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML TB -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TB: Elo 55.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −13 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.628th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 11–1323rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 144827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–24 | 20–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 19–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–27 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 7–3 MIA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.