Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Aranda singled to center, B. Lowe scored, Díaz to second.4–0
- 5Díaz singled to right, Jansen scored and Simpson scored, B. Lowe to second.3–0
- 5Simpson singled to center, Caballero scored, Jansen to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- TB: Elo 53.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −3 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 5th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 11–1221st of 30 |
| 12th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 145127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–24 | 20–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–26 | 27–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–3 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.