Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Sanoja reached on infield single to second, Wagaman scored, Hill to second, Pauley to third.4–9
- 6Simon hit sacrifice fly to left, Stowers scored.4–8
- 6Wagaman singled to center, Ramírez scored, Stowers to third.4–7
- 6Stowers singled to center, J. Sánchez scored on error, Stowers safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Misner, Ramírez safe at third on error.4–6
- 5J. Lowe singled to center, Simpson scored.4–5
- 5Simpson safe at first on throwing error by second baseman Simon, Caballero scored, Simpson to second.3–5
- 5Caballero doubled to left, Misner scored.2–5
- 4Norby doubled to left, Hill scored, Ramírez scored and J. Sánchez scored.1–5
- 4Ramírez walked, Pauley scored, J. Sánchez to second, Hill to third.1–2
- 3Díaz singled to left, Simpson scored.1–1
- 1Wagaman hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Sánchez scored, Ramírez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 54%
- ML TB -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TB: Elo 53.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +25 Elo | TB 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.728th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–6 | Road vs home | 10–1223rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15084th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 144827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–23 | 19–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 17–26 | 26–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.