Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Sánchez tripled to right, Hill scored and Sanoja scored.7–8
- 6Shaw hit a ground rule double, Amaya scored.7–6
- 6Amaya doubled to center, Swanson scored and Hoerner scored, Amaya to third, Ballesteros thrown out at home.6–6
- 6Ballesteros reached on infield single to first, Busch scored, Hoerner to second, Swanson to third.4–6
- 5Lopez singled to left, J. Sánchez scored.3–6
- 5J. Sánchez singled to center, Sanoja scored.3–5
- 5Sanoja singled to center, Hicks scored.3–4
- 5Hicks tripled to center, Norby scored.3–3
- 4Amaya homered to left (363 feet), Busch scored and Hoerner scored.3–2
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (410 feet).0–2
- 1J. Sánchez homered to center (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -165 / MIA +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 3.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +68 Elo | CHC 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 12–1322nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 145127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 20–16 |
| Overs–unders | 30–17 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–8 MIA in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.