Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner singled to left, Swanson scored, Turner to second.3–7
- 5Bruján hit a ground rule double, Hoerner scored, Amaya to third.3–6
- 5Swanson homered to center (433 feet).3–5
- 5Elko homered to center (425 feet).3–4
- 3Vargas hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.2–4
- 2Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Hoerner scored and Amaya scored.1–4
- 2Amaya singled to left, Ballesteros scored and Swanson scored, Hoerner to second.1–2
- 1Meidroth homered to left (368 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 72%
- ML CHW +240 / CHC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 69.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- CHC -255
- CHW +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 5.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +3 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +141 Elo | CHC 69.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 73.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.73rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 13–814th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301409 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–20 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24 | 28–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–8 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.