Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Vargas homered to left center (373 feet), Palacios scored and Meidroth scored.5–1
- 10Meidroth singled to right, Baldwin scored, Palacios to second.2–1
- 9De La Cruz homered to right (435 feet).1–1
- 4Quero singled to right, Vargas scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 66%
- ML CHW +185 / CIN -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 65.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -197
- CHW +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +11 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +111 Elo | CIN 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 64.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–17 | Road vs home | 9–1021st of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 29th of 301408 | Elo rating | 149619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 23–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 7–12 |
| Underdog | 23–17 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–21 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–4 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.