Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3
- Chase PettyPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 6Walker singled to center, Peña scored and Smith scored, Paredes to second.0–6
- 4Walker hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.0–4
- 3Diaz homered to left (392 feet), Paredes scored and Walker scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML CIN +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- CIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −3 | CIN: Chase Petty: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +57 Elo | HOU 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 12–814th of 30 |
| 26th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 152411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 20–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–23 | 17–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–1 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.