Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting1-4
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 5Paredes doubled to right, Dubón scored.0–3
- 5Peña grounded out to second, Rodgers scored, Dubón to second.0–2
- 2Dezenzo singled to left, Walker scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML CIN +160 / HOU -190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- CIN +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +51 Elo | HOU 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.018th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 11–715th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–17 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 15–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–0 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.