Cincinnati Reds at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan VanWeyPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peña doubled to left, Smith scored.13–9
- 6Joe singled to left, Steer scored, Joe out stretching at second.13–8
- 5Peña singled to center, Meyers scored, Smith to third.12–8
- 3Caratini homered to right (359 feet), Dezenzo scored.12–7
- 3Diaz grounded out to third, Walker scored.12–5
- 3Walker tripled to right, Rodgers scored and Paredes scored.12–4
- 3Paredes doubled to left, Peña scored, Rodgers to third.12–2
- 3McLain homered to left center (394 feet), Friedl scored.12–1
- 1Diaz reached on infield single to second, Altuve scored, Paredes to second.10–1
- 1Lux singled to left, Friedl scored and McLain scored.10–0
- 1De La Cruz grounded out to shortstop, Joe scored, McLain to second, Friedl to third.8–0
- 1McLain walked, Benson scored, Friedl to second, Joe to third.7–0
- 1Friedl singled to right, Stephenson scored, Joe to second, Benson to third.6–0
- 1Benson doubled to right, Steer scored, Stephenson to third.5–0
- 1Stephenson singled to center, Espinal scored, Steer to third.4–0
- 1De La Cruz homered to left (354 feet), Friedl scored and McLain scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 53%
- ML CIN +105 / HOU -125
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −10 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +55 Elo | HOU 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3010–11 | Road vs home | 12–712th of 30 |
| 26th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–18 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 15–6 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–23 | 16–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–1 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.