Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hays doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.4–2
- 7Steer homered to left center (392 feet).4–1
- 7Taylor homered to left center (383 feet).4–0
- 6Sosa homered to right center (385 feet).3–0
- 5Robert Jr. singled to center, Meidroth scored, Robert Jr. thrown out at second.2–0
- 2Vaughn doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 64%
- ML CHW +170 / CIN -205
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 65.2%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CIN -181
- CHW +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −6 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +109 Elo | CIN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 9–1124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301411 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–18 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 24–17 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–22 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.