Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vargas singled to right, Palacios scored, Amaya to third.1–7
- 6McLain homered to left center (406 feet).0–7
- 5Benson homered to center (401 feet).0–6
- 4Lux grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McLain scored, Joe out at second.0–5
- 3De La Cruz homered to left center (395 feet).0–4
- 1Benson singled to right, Espinal scored and De La Cruz scored.0–3
- 1Hays hit sacrifice fly to center, Lux scored, De La Cruz to second, Espinal to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 68%
- ML CHW +200 / CIN -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 64.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CIN -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 5.6 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | CHW: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +103 Elo | CIN 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 29th of 301413 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–18 | 23–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 7–14 |
| Underdog | 25–17 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–23 | 18–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–4 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.