Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting4-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting4-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kelly scored, Ballesteros out at second.3–13
- 8Ballesteros singled to right, Busch scored, Kelly to third.3–12
- 8Swanson hit sacrifice fly to right, Suzuki scored, Busch to third.3–11
- 7Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Ballesteros scored and Hoerner scored.3–10
- 6Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.3–8
- 6Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Hoerner scored.3–7
- 3Vargas homered to center (406 feet).3–6
- 2Suzuki doubled to center, Tucker scored.2–6
- 2Crow-Armstrong homered to right (396 feet), Ballesteros scored and Hoerner scored.2–5
- 2Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kelly scored on error by catcher Thaiss, Ballesteros to second.2–2
- 2Ballesteros grounded into fielder's choice to first, Busch scored, Kelly to third.2–1
- 1Vargas homered to left (402 feet), Meidroth scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 67%
- ML CHW +195 / CHC -235
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 67.8%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -207
- CHW +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 5.0 – 6.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +129 Elo | CHC 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 12–816th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15192nd of 30 |
| 29th of 301411 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–19 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 25–18 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–24 | 27–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–7 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.