Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Quero grounded out to shortstop, Robert Jr. scored, Sosa to second.2–6
- 8Hoerner doubled to left, Swanson scored.1–6
- 7Bruján singled to right, Hoerner scored.1–5
- 6Busch singled to center, Tucker scored.1–4
- 6Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–3
- 6Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Bruján scored.1–2
- 4Vargas homered to left center (375 feet).1–1
- 1Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 70%
- ML CHW +215 / CHC -265
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 67.5%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- CHC -229
- CHW +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +127 Elo | CHC 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 72.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–20 | Road vs home | 14–811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15123rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301408 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–21 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 29–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–9 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.