Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Nick FortesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch doubled to right, Happ scored and Suzuki scored.14–1
- 9Suzuki doubled to left, Berti scored and Turner scored, Happ to third.12–1
- 9Happ singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored, Turner to second, Berti to third.10–1
- 6Suzuki homered to center (405 feet), Shaw scored.9–1
- 6Shaw doubled to right, Hoerner scored.7–1
- 6Turner hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.6–1
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Kelly scored and Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.5–1
- 6Crow-Armstrong singled to left, Tucker scored, Swanson to second, Kelly to third.3–1
- 6Swanson singled to center, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second, Tucker to third.2–1
- 3Fortes homered to left center (399 feet).1–1
- 1Tucker homered to right center (393 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML CHC -155 / MIA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +25 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 1.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +41 Elo | CHC 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 13–1321st of 30 |
| 4th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15075th of 30 |
| 4th of 301537 | Elo rating | 145227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–14 | 1–8 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 31–17 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–9 MIA in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.