Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Wade scored on Gibson wild pitch.3–4
- 11Wade scored on Gibson wild pitch.3–4
- 8Machado homered to left center (406 feet).3–3
- 4Iglesias doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored, Campusano to third.3–2
- 2J. Sánchez homered to center (417 feet).3–0
- 1Norby singled to center, Ramírez scored, Lopez to second.2–0
- 1Ramírez doubled to right, J. Sánchez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML MIA +135 / SD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SD: Elo 60.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −14 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +71 Elo | SD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 16–87th of 30 |
| 6th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 26th of 301451 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 29–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 16–13 |
| Underdog | 24–18 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–8 SD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.