Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Javier SanojaBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Angels- Tim AndersonBatting1-3
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5J. Sánchez doubled to center, Sanoja scored.3–0
- 4Norby singled to center, Lopez scored.2–0
- 3Sanoja hit sacrifice fly to center, Mervis scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML MIA -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 53.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +23 Elo | LAA 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 10–1123rd of 30 |
| 6th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 27th of 301449 | Elo rating | 145126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 23–28 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 3–10 |
| Underdog | 23–18 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 8.