Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler doubled to center, Ward scored.10–5
- 9Ward singled to left, Neto scored.9–5
- 8O'Hoppe scored on Krook wild pitch, Adell to third on wild pitch by Krook.8–5
- 8O'Hoppe scored on Krook wild pitch, Adell to third on wild pitch by Krook.8–5
- 8Soler doubled to left, Ward scored.7–5
- 7Kurtz homered to center (431 feet).6–5
- 5Kurtz homered to center (435 feet).6–4
- 4Adell homered to left center (416 feet).6–3
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left (431 feet).5–3
- 3Neto homered to left (409 feet), Tim Anderson scored.4–3
- 2Butler homered to center (419 feet), Brown scored and Schuemann scored.2–3
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left center (470 feet), Soler scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 58%
- ML LAA +130 / ATH -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 53.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.9 – 5.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +26 Elo | ATH 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 8–1528th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301446 | Elo rating | 145326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–27 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 14–14 ATH in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.
