Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to center, Lugo scored and Neto scored.6–2
- 8Ohtani homered to center (433 feet).4–2
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Smith scored.4–1
- 4Neto doubled to left, Rengifo scored and Lugo scored, Tim Anderson to third.4–0
- 1Moncada homered to right (383 feet), Schanuel scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML LAA +255 / LAD -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 71.5%, market 73.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -270
- LAA +270 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.7 – 5.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +160 Elo | LAD 71.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.63rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 17–41st of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 28th of 301435 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–27 | 24–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 18–19 |
| Underdog | 13–18 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–18 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 2–6 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.