Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4
- Landon KnackPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday homered to right center (402 feet).11–1
- 9Andujar homered to center (384 feet).10–1
- 8Kurtz homered to left center (415 feet).9–1
- 7Bleday singled to center, Andujar scored.8–1
- 7Andujar singled to left, Butler scored, Andujar to second.7–1
- 5Butler doubled to left, Langeliers scored and Rooker scored.6–1
- 5Wilson homered to center (392 feet), Urías scored.4–1
- 3Taylor scored on error, Betts safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Wilson.2–1
- 3Wilson homered to left (374 feet), Kurtz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML ATH +160 / LAD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.5%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -170
- ATH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +6 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Landon Knack: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +135 Elo | LAD 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.63rd of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 15–31st of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 22–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 16–18 |
| Underdog | 18–11 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 1–5 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.
