Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to center (426 feet).3–5
- 8Pages singled to right, Smith scored, Muncy to third.2–5
- 8Muncy hit a ground rule double, Betts scored, Smith to third.1–5
- 5Marte homered to right center (384 feet).0–5
- 4Moreno homered to right center (377 feet), Smith scored, Naylor scored and Suárez scored.0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -165 / ARI +140
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.5%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +2 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 9–1022nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–17 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–16 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–14 ARI in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.