Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting1-3
- Dustin MayPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith doubled to right, Marte scored.0–3
- 6Suárez homered to center (455 feet).0–2
- 3Marte grounded out to second, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML LAD -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 45.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +30 Elo | LAD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 10–1120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301569 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–18 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 12–13 |
| Underdog | 6–0 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17 | 20–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 16–15 ARI in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 31.