Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristian MenaPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ohtani homered to right center (426 feet), Kim scored and Conforto scored.14–11
- 9Muncy singled to right, E. Hernández scored.11–11
- 9E. Hernández doubled to left, Pages scored.10–11
- 9Pages doubled to left, Freeman scored.9–11
- 8Grichuk homered to left center (442 feet).8–11
- 8Marte homered to left center (443 feet).8–10
- 6Suárez walked, Perdomo scored, Smith to second, Marte to third.8–9
- 5Gurriel Jr. homered to left (401 feet), Marte scored, Smith scored and Suárez scored.8–8
- 4Gurriel Jr. grounded out to first, Suárez scored.8–4
- 3Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, Outman to third.8–3
- 3Outman grounded into fielder's choice to first, E. Hernández scored and Pages scored on fielding error by first baseman Naylor, Rojas to second.7–3
- 3Pages singled to left, Smith scored and Freeman scored.5–3
- 2Ohtani doubled to center, Rojas scored.3–3
- 2E. Hernández homered to left (438 feet).2–3
- 1Suárez homered to right center (423 feet), Naylor scored.1–3
- 1Marte homered to right (427 feet).1–1
- 1Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML LAD -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −15 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +27 Elo | LAD 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 10–1020th of 30 |
| 25th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 15279th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–18 | 19–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–17 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–15 ARI in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 30.