Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-3
- Zac GallenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pages singled to left, Smith scored.8–1
- 9Smith doubled to center, Freeman scored.7–1
- 9Betts homered to right center (393 feet).6–1
- 7Herrera doubled to right, Thomas scored.5–1
- 7Freeman homered to right center (405 feet).5–0
- 6Ohtani singled to right, Conforto scored.4–0
- 5Smith singled to center, Betts scored.3–0
- 5Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.2–0
- 1Freeman doubled to left, Betts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +6 | LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +3 Elo | LAD 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 11–1120th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15192nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 15278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–19 | 20–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 6–1 | 7–7 |
| Overs–unders | 22–18 | 20–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 16–16 ARI in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 32.