Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Max SchuemannBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Matt SauerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy hit sacrifice fly to center, Kim scored.2–19
- 8Rojas singled to right, Outman scored, Kim to third.2–18
- 8Kim hit a ground rule double, Rushing scored, Outman to third.2–17
- 6Outman homered to center (400 feet).2–16
- 4Ohtani homered to center (418 feet), Kim scored.2–15
- 3Pages homered to center (416 feet), Betts scored and Muncy scored.2–13
- 3Ohtani homered to left center (382 feet), Outman scored and Kim scored.2–10
- 3Kim singled to left, Rushing scored, Outman to second.2–7
- 2Muncy singled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–6
- 2Betts singled to left, Kim scored.2–5
- 2Ohtani hit sacrifice fly to right, Rushing scored.2–4
- 2Schuemann homered to center (424 feet).2–3
- 1Muncy homered to right (408 feet), Freeman scored.1–3
- 1Freeman singled to right, Betts scored, Freeman to second.1–1
- 1Langeliers doubled to right, Wilson scored, Soderstrom to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML ATH +205 / LAD -250
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.1%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -218
- ATH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | ATH: Osvaldo Bido: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Matt Sauer (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +124 Elo | LAD 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 16–41st of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 24th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–19 | 23–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–6 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
