Athletics at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Muncy homered to right (396 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.3–9
- 8Betts doubled to center, Ohtani scored and E. Hernández scored.3–6
- 6Rojas doubled to center, Conforto scored.3–4
- 5Kim homered to right center (385 feet).3–3
- 4Andujar doubled to left, Langeliers scored.3–2
- 3Soderstrom homered to center (414 feet), Urías scored.2–2
- 2Pages homered to left (417 feet).0–2
- 1Ohtani homered to right (403 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML ATH +230 / LAD -285
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- ATH +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | ATH: Gunnar Hoglund: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +132 Elo | LAD 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.16th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–7 | Road vs home | 15–41st of 30 |
| 25th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301465 | Elo rating | 15641st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–18 | 22–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–18 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 2–5 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.
