Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting2-3
- J.T. GinnPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Rooker singled to left, Soderstrom scored.4–3
- 3Ward homered to left (423 feet), Schanuel scored.4–2
- 3Moncada grounded out to second, Neto scored, Schanuel to third.2–2
- 1Langeliers reached on infield single to third, Wilson scored.1–2
- 1Rooker grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Butler scored, Soderstrom out at second, Wilson to third.1–1
- 1Schanuel homered to right center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 55%
- ML LAA +115 / ATH -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1443 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +33 Elo | ATH 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 8–1327th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 28th of 301443 | Elo rating | 145625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–27 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 12–14 ATH in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.
