Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting2-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lugo homered to left (383 feet).11–9
- 8Muncy singled to left, Freeman scored on error, Pages to second, Pages safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Ward.10–9
- 7Rushing singled to left, E. Hernández scored, Conforto to second.10–8
- 7Newman singled to center, Rengifo scored, Adell to second.10–7
- 7O'Hoppe homered to right center (379 feet), Schanuel scored and Soler scored.9–7
- 7Schanuel doubled to right, Neto scored.6–7
- 6Ohtani grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Rushing scored, Rojas out at second.5–7
- 6Conforto scored on Neris wild pitch, Rushing to third on wild pitch by Neris.5–6
- 6Conforto scored on Neris wild pitch, Rushing to third on wild pitch by Neris.5–6
- 6Rushing hit a ground rule double, E. Hernández scored, Conforto to third.5–5
- 4E. Hernández homered to left center (415 feet).5–4
- 4Neto hit sacrifice fly to right, Adell scored.5–3
- 3Ward homered to left (412 feet).4–3
- 1Pages homered to center (400 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.3–3
- 1Lugo doubled to left, Soler scored, O'Hoppe to third.3–0
- 1O'Hoppe singled to left, Schanuel scored and Ward scored, Soler to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML LAA +200 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -212
- LAA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +135 Elo | LAD 68.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 70.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 70.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–15 | Road vs home | 17–51st of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 28th of 301438 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–27 | 24–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 18–20 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19 | 25–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 3–6 LAD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.