Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tony GonsolinPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moncada grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Neto scored, Schanuel out at second.6–4
- 8d'Arnaud homered to left (401 feet).5–4
- 7Smith homered to left (382 feet), Conforto scored and Ohtani scored.4–4
- 5Ohtani singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second.4–1
- 3d'Arnaud singled to left, Schanuel scored, Moncada to third.4–0
- 1Ward homered to center (411 feet), Moncada scored.3–0
- 1Neto homered to left center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML LAA +200 / LAD -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 69.0%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -212
- LAA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −7 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tony Gonsolin: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +139 Elo | LAD 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–15 | Road vs home | 17–63rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149328th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–27 | 24–22 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 18–21 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 25–19 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 LAD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.