Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gunnar HoglundPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brown singled to right, Butler scored.7–5
- 9Ward hit into fielder's choice to right, Neto scored, Moncada out at second, Schanuel to third.7–4
- 9Neto doubled to left, Paris scored.6–4
- 5O'Hoppe singled to left, Ward scored.5–4
- 5Moncada homered to right (439 feet), Rengifo scored and Paris scored.4–4
- 4Kurtz homered to left (392 feet), Andujar scored.1–4
- 4Langeliers homered to center (410 feet).1–2
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left (381 feet).1–1
- 2Urías singled to center, Langeliers scored, Kurtz to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 61%
- ML LAA +145 / ATH -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 52.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- ATH -156
- LAA +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 5.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −7 | LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Gunnar Hoglund: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +19 Elo | ATH 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 8–1428th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 28th of 301444 | Elo rating | 145525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–27 | 26–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 26–20 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 13–14 ATH in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.
