Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Taylor WardBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Newman singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Adell to third.10–5
- 9Moncada hit sacrifice fly to center, Soler scored.9–5
- 9Adell walked, Ward scored, O'Hoppe to second, Soler to third.8–5
- 7O'Hoppe homered to right center (410 feet).7–5
- 7Ward homered to center (426 feet), Newman scored, Neto scored and Schanuel scored.6–5
- 5Pereda walked, Andujar scored, Urshela to second, Kurtz to third.2–5
- 5Urshela walked, Rooker scored, Kurtz to second, Andujar to third.2–4
- 5Neto singled to left, Paris scored, Neto to second.2–3
- 4Ward singled to right, Neto scored, Schanuel to second.1–3
- 3Kurtz hit sacrifice fly to center, Soderstrom scored.0–3
- 1Rooker homered to left center (440 feet), Wilson scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 54%
- ML LAA +110 / ATH -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATH: Elo 51.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.1 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +11 Elo | ATH 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.427th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 8–1629th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149425th of 30 |
| 27th of 301449 | Elo rating | 145026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–27 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–9 | 5–10 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–20 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 15–14 ATH in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 29.
