Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Eric WagamanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soler homered to center (417 feet).4–7
- 8Wagaman singled to left, Pauley scored and Ramírez scored.4–6
- 7Stowers doubled to right, Norby scored.2–6
- 7Wagaman homered to left center (410 feet).1–6
- 6Rengifo hit sacrifice fly to right, Soler scored, O'Hoppe to third.0–6
- 6d'Arnaud hit by pitch, Ward scored, O'Hoppe to second, Soler to third.0–5
- 6Soler reached first base on catcher's interference, Schanuel to home, Ward to second, Moncada to third.0–4
- 4O'Hoppe doubled to left, Moncada scored.0–3
- 4Ward hit sacrifice fly to right, Schanuel scored.0–2
- 2Ward homered to right (368 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 59%
- ML MIA +135 / LAA -160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- LAA: Elo 52.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -145
- MIA +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +20 Elo | LAA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 306–14 | Road vs home | 9–1023rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 27th of 301448 | Elo rating | 145226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 22–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 2–9 |
| Underdog | 22–17 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–19 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 6.