Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Connor NorbyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Jose SorianoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soler singled to center, Ward scored.6–2
- 7Norby homered to left (361 feet), Lopez scored and Wagaman scored.6–1
- 5Wagaman singled to center, Ramírez scored.3–1
- 5Stowers grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, J. Sánchez scored, Lopez out at second, Ramírez to third.2–1
- 4Ward hit sacrifice fly to center, Neto scored.1–1
- 2Simon singled to left, Hicks scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 66%
- ML MIA +180 / LAA -215
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.6 pts
- LAA: Elo 55.0%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- LAA -191
- MIA +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.5 – 5.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1446 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +35 Elo | LAA 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.7 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 306–15 | Road vs home | 10–1021st of 30 |
| 5th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 27th of 301446 | Elo rating | 145426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–26 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 1–8 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 22–18 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 30–19 | 30–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.