San Francisco Giants at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Malloy singled to left, Torres scored and Keith scored.3–4
- 5Keith doubled to right, Rogers scored and Carpenter scored, Torres to third.3–2
- 5Ramos homered to left center (426 feet), Yastrzemski scored.3–0
- 2Wade Jr. doubled to right, Chapman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML SF -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- DET: Elo 56.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- SF -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +6 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 20–82nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15366th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–30 | 31–25 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–21 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–6 DET in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.