Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-2, 2 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Torres doubled to left, Ibáñez scored and Báez scored.7–5
- 10Jones singled to right, Martínez scored, Jones thrown out at second.7–3
- 10Naylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Santana scored.6–3
- 10Martínez doubled to right, Manzardo scored, Santana to third.5–3
- 10Manzardo doubled to left, Ramírez scored.4–3
- 8Martínez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.3–3
- 3Ramírez singled to center, Noel scored, Thomas to second.2–3
- 3Naylor homered to right center (384 feet).1–3
- 1Vierling singled to right, Keith scored and Torres scored, Vierling out stretching at second, McKinstry to third.0–3
- 1Keith doubled to right, Carpenter scored, Torres to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML CLE +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- DET: Elo 56.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.78th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–73rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 16th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–27 | 28–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–15 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–27 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–17 DET in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.
- May 23CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 52%Miss
- May 22CLE 7 @ DET 0Picked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 12DET 3 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 10CLE 5 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 9CLE 0 @ DET 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 51%Miss
- Oct 7DET 3 @ CLE 0PlayoffsPicked DET 53%Hit
- Oct 5DET 0 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 54%Hit
- Jul 30CLE 5 @ DET 0Picked CLE 55%Hit