Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Brant HurterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Báez singled to left, Keith scored.5–1
- 8Sweeney hit sacrifice fly to center, Torkelson scored.4–1
- 6Contreras singled to center, Scott II scored.3–1
- 6Dingler singled to left, Greene scored, Torkelson thrown out at home.3–0
- 4Torkelson doubled to right, Greene scored.2–0
- 2Keith sacrificed into double play, left to third to second, Greene scored, Torkelson thrown out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML DET +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- STL: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | DET: Brant Hurter: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +12 Elo | STL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 16–74th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15056th of 30 |
| 6th of 301535 | Elo rating | 151514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–22 | 31–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 28–21 | 27–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–3 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.