Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Pedro PagesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dingler grounded out to third, Ibáñez scored.4–11
- 9Sweeney hit sacrifice fly to right, Torkelson scored, Ibáñez to third.3–11
- 9Ibáñez doubled to left, Malloy scored, Torkelson to third.2–11
- 8Baddoo doubled to left, Sweeney scored, Dingler to third.1–11
- 7Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to left, Scott II scored.0–11
- 7Pagés homered to left (396 feet), Walker scored.0–10
- 7Walker doubled to center, Contreras scored and Herrera scored.0–8
- 7Herrera singled to right, Donovan scored, Contreras to third.0–6
- 5Arenado grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Donovan scored, Herrera out at second.0–5
- 5Herrera grounded into fielder's choice to second, Winn scored, Donovan third.0–4
- 5Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second, Winn to third.0–3
- 4Herrera scored on Montero wild pitch, Burleson to second.0–2
- 4Herrera scored on Montero wild pitch, Burleson to second on wild pitch by Montero.0–2
- 1Donovan singled to left, Nootbaar scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML DET +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- STL: Elo 49.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- DET +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −1 | DET: Sean Guenther (no track record yet) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 15–64th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15048th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 151315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–20 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 9–8 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 26–21 | 25–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–2 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.