St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.10–3
- 9Donovan singled to right, Nootbaar scored, Winn to third.9–3
- 8Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.8–3
- 8Walker reached on infield single to shortstop, Herrera scored.8–2
- 6Pagés singled to right, Herrera scored, Pagés to second.7–2
- 6Herrera doubled to center, Contreras scored, Winn scored and Donovan scored.6–2
- 5Isbel scored on a balk.3–2
- 5Isbel scored on a balk.3–2
- 4Pasquantino homered to right center (448 feet).3–1
- 4Herrera singled to left, Contreras scored.3–0
- 4Contreras doubled to center, Donovan scored.2–0
- 2Contreras scored on Ragans wild pitch.1–0
- 2Contreras scored on Ragans wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 58%
- ML STL +130 / KC -155
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- KC: Elo 49.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- KC -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −4 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +4 Elo | STL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–14 | Road vs home | 16–77th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–18 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20 | 16–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–5 KC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.