St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Winn homered to left center (377 feet).3–2
- 6Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Schwarber scored, Castellanos out at second.2–2
- 6Herrera homered to right center (389 feet).2–1
- 4Sosa reached on infield single to third, Realmuto scored.1–1
- 4Pagés grounded into fielder's choice to third, Arenado scored, Herrera out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML STL +145 / PHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 59.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- STL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +14 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 307–13 | Road vs home | 13–69th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–18 | 21–19 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–18 | 18–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–10 PHI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.