Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-4
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ramírez homered to right (359 feet).0–6
- 7Schneemann grounded out to first, Martínez scored.0–5
- 5Santana grounded out to shortstop, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Schneemann to third.0–4
- 5Martínez homered to right center (364 feet), Arias scored.0–3
- 4Manzardo homered to center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- CLE +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 9th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 11–58th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148729th of 30 |
| 7th of 301532 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–18 | 16–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–19 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–4 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.