St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harper reached on infield single to shortstop, Marchán scored, Stott out at home on runner's fielder's choice.1–2
- 7Stott reached on infield single to shortstop, Wilson scored, Marchán to third.1–1
- 7Walker singled to left, Herrera scored, Walker to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML STL +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −1 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +38 Elo | PHI 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 13–711th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–18 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 15–16 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–19 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–10 PHI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.