Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Peña singled to left, Dubón scored.3–4
- 8Dubón doubled to left, McCormick scored.3–3
- 6Peña doubled to left, Dubón scored.3–2
- 5Garcia doubled to left, Pasquantino scored.3–1
- 4Paredes homered to left (398 feet).2–1
- 2India doubled to left, Renfroe scored, Waters to third.2–0
- 2Garcia homered to left (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML KC -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −8 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.116th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 14–915th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–23 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–28 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 11–7 HOU in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.