Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith grounded out to third, Meyers scored.7–5
- 8Meyers singled to right, Diaz scored on error and Caratini scored on fielding error by right fielder Waters, Meyers to second.7–4
- 7Peña hit sacrifice fly to right, Dezenzo scored.7–2
- 7Dezenzo doubled to left, Meyers scored.7–1
- 3Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Waters scored.7–0
- 3India singled to left, Biggio scored, Isbel to second, Waters to third.6–0
- 3Waters singled to left, Massey scored, Biggio to third.5–0
- 2Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.4–0
- 2Witt Jr. tripled to right, India scored.3–0
- 2India singled to center, Isbel scored.2–0
- 2Massey homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML KC +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +35 Elo | HOU 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 13–813th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–23 | 21–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–14 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–27 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–6 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.