St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching3.2 IP, 9 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winn singled to left, Scott II scored.14–7
- 9Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored, Scott II to third.13–7
- 8Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Donovan scored, Arenado to third.12–7
- 8Winn scored on Walker wild pitch, Arenado to second on wild pitch by Walker, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Walker.11–7
- 8Winn scored on Walker wild pitch, Arenado to second on wild pitch by Walker, Donovan to third on wild pitch by Walker.11–7
- 8Winn singled to left, Scott II scored.10–7
- 4Bohm homered to right center (362 feet).9–7
- 4Burleson singled to center, Arenado scored and Contreras scored, Herrera thrown out at third.9–6
- 4Winn homered to left center (381 feet).7–6
- 3Schwarber homered to right center (420 feet).6–6
- 3Burleson homered to right center (404 feet), Herrera scored.6–5
- 3Contreras grounded out to third, Donovan scored.4–5
- 3Donovan doubled to center, Winn scored.3–5
- 3Nootbaar homered to right center (373 feet).2–5
- 1Realmuto homered to left center (417 feet), Kepler scored.1–5
- 1Kepler singled to right, Castellanos scored.1–3
- 1Castellanos doubled to left, Harper scored and Turner scored.1–2
- 1Arenado grounded out to second, Nootbaar scored, Winn to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML STL +105 / PHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +39 Elo | PHI 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 308–14 | Road vs home | 14–79th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–18 | 21–21 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 23–20 | 18–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–11 PHI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.