St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Garcia singled to right, Waters scored.1–2
- 4Blanco doubled to right, Renfroe scored.1–1
- 4Burleson homered to center (430 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- STL: Elo 48.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +8 Elo | KC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 16–910th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301514 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–18 | 22–25 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–8 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 14–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–21 | 17–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–5 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.