Detroit Tigers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene doubled to right, McKinstry scored.5–4
- 7Winn hit sacrifice fly to right, Scott II scored.4–4
- 6Herrera singled to right, Winn scored.4–3
- 5Arenado homered to left (387 feet), Herrera scored.4–2
- 3Greene homered to right (375 feet), Torres scored.4–0
- 1Greene singled to right, McKinstry scored.2–0
- 1Carpenter homered to right (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML DET -180 / STL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- DET: Elo 51.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 3.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +5 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.7 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 16–63rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15057th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 151614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 30–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 10–0 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 10–8 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 20–10 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.