Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Twins- Kody ClemensBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens doubled to center, Fitzgerald scored, Bride to third.5–6
- 9Naylor doubled to right, Jones scored and Santana scored.5–5
- 9Jones singled to left, Ramírez scored, Santana to second.3–5
- 8Bader singled to left, Keirsey Jr. scored, Bride to third.2–5
- 4Bader hit sacrifice fly to right, Clemens scored.2–4
- 4Clemens tripled to left, Larnach scored.2–3
- 4Santana homered to right (360 feet).2–2
- 2Castro doubled to right, Bader scored.1–2
- 1France singled to center, Jeffers scored, Lewis to second.1–1
- 1Manzardo doubled to center, Martínez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML CLE +125 / MIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- CLE +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +44 Elo | MIN 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 14th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 15–63rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149426th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–27 | 29–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 7–14 | 16–9 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24 | 17–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 20–10 MIN in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 30.