Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hinds homered to center (423 feet).1–4
- 6Hays doubled to center, Espinal scored, Hays to third.1–3
- 6Espinal singled to right, Friedl scored.1–2
- 5Benson homered to right center (399 feet).1–1
- 5Schneemann homered to right center (356 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 45.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.8 – 4.7 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +14 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +30 Elo | CIN 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 11–1221st of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 16th of 301508 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–25 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–13 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 17–7 |
| Overs–unders | 22–22 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–4 CIN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.